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Global crisis rocks US trade

The global financial implosion took a heavy toll on US trade in September, hitting both imports and exports, according to a government report underlining the world's economic woes.

In a report that highlights the slowdown in the United States and a likely global recession, the commerce department said the US trade deficit narrowed 4.4 per cent in September to $56.5 billion. 

What normally would be seen as an improvement in the trade balance set off alarms with a record drop in imports and a steep fall in exports.

Rupee crosses Rs.50/dollar mark

The rupee breached the rs.50 mark on Wednesday to close at 50.05 to the dollar as the Sensex swung from positive to negative territory, losing nearly 400 points intra-day. The rupee had closed at 49.66/67 on Tuesday and its fall on Wednesday was gradual, said the chief dealer at Vrajlal Thakker & Co., forex brokers and consultants. The pressure on the rupee came from FII outflow. He said if the US markets open strong on Wednesday, then the rupee can rebound a bit. The rupee last saw this level on October 27 when it recorded a low of 50.29. Mr.Rugved Dhumale, associate Vice president, Macklai Financial & Commercial Services Ltd. said the rupee had been weakening over the last three days and the market was expecting some sort of intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) by the end of the week.

He said, "the correlation between the rupee and the stock market has been holding up well in the last five to six months," and added that "the rupee could move further northwards by the end of this year". Mr.Deven Choksey, managing Director, K.R.Ckoksey said "the rupee could touch 55 if the carnage on the stock market is not stopped. Investors will not come to the Indian markets and this could hurt the rupee apart from sending bedgetary estimates haywire." The Sensex gained 280 points within an hour of opening but by 2 pm the market came under the grip of short sellers and arbitrageurs. It closed down 163.42 points at 8773.78 while the Nifty was down 48.15 points at 2635.

"There is no participation from genuine buyers. The market is loaded with bear traders and the arbitrageurs who absorb the transactions of the bears and the financial institutional investors." said Mr.Choksey, adding that the market gave up all its gains when there was no buying seen. Mr.Ambareesh Baliga termed the market turning red in the afternoon as "a typical bear market rally, where every upside is used to sell."

Sensex bucks global trend

The Sensex bucked the negative trend of Asian markets on Friday, that were pummelled down five per cent following the failure of the crippled auto giants to get $14 billion bailout package. The failure could lead to job loss in the US market rising 10 million. Money flew out of the Asian markets to safer heavens like government bonds bonds and the yen, which touched a 13 year high. The Hang Seng was the biggest looser down 855.51 points followed by the Nikkei down 484.68 points.

"Friday's trading revealed the character of the market as it seems that investors with a longer term perspective are entering it. The markets took the negative growth in the index of industrial production (IIP) in their stride. They made new lows but soon recovered," said MR.V.K.Sharma, director, Anagram Securities Ltd., He said, "One cannot say to what extent this positive situation will remain but there is a bias towards the upside,"

Mr.Ambareesh Baliga was equally optimistic about the market and said that "it is clear that FIIs and domestic buying is there and could be an indication that we have reached the bottom. But certainly it is not the beginning of a rally." The Sensex was affected in themorning trade by the gloomy global sentiment and opened with a negative gap of over 250 points.

It fell further after the index of industrial production figures announced were much lower than market expectations but struggled to claw its way back into positive territory and closed up 44.61 points and 9690.07. The Nifty closed at 2920.15, up 1.2 points. The turnover on both the exchanges was Rs.56,729 crore with the F&O segment accounting for 42,078 crore. The market breadth that indicated broad-based trading with 847 stocks ending positive on the NSE and 397 in the negative.

Among the winners were the oil marketing company shares led by BPCL up six per cent or Rs.18.35. ONGC was down 18.50 and RIL managed to close with a significant gain of Rs.47.30. Real estate was on top led by DLF up Rs.19.85 while bank stocks saw a mixed fare. The mainline information technology stocks took a beating with Infosys down 28.60 and TCS down Rs.25.40.

Reserve Bank steps in to boost forex liquidity

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday announced fresh measures to provide forex liquidity through liquidity through forex swaps to Indian public and private sector banks having foreign branches or subsidiaries. This facility for tenors upto three three months will be available on request until further notice, it said. The pricing of swaps will be based on the interest rates in the domestic as well as the overseas markets using the Reserve bank reference rate for the US dollar-Indian rupee exchange rate.

The RBI said that this measure was taken to provide flexibility to Indian banks in managing their short-term funding requirements at their overseas offices in the context of the global developments. In a further concession, the RBI says that if banks need funds to finance the swaps, they can also borrow under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) for the corresponding tenor at the prevailing repo rate. It said that it would be prepared to consider any specific relaxation of statutory liquity ratio (SLR) requirements for this purpose.

Central banks across the world have already taken action to ease the liquidity situation through measures such as in-central bank swap lines, collateralised lending and forex swaps in response to the global financial turmoil and its impact on the international money markets. Elsewhere, EU leaders on Friday considered a financial reform to-do list for next week's summit in Washington, with France pushing a deadline for a global deal by late March to prevent a re-peat of the Wall Street excesses that caused havoc in markets worldwide.